The scenario in which emissions continue to grow steadily, the temperature in the places of residence of people by 2070 will increase by 7.5°C
PNAS
In this case, about 30% of the projected world population will live in areas with an average temperature above 29°C. These conditions are currently experiencing only 0.8% of the earth’s surface, mainly in the hottest parts of the Sahara desert, but in 50 years they can apply to the 19% of the land on the planet
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An international group of scientists from several universities in Europe, USA and China, including archaeologists, ecologists and climatologists, conducted a study on the impact of global warming on climatic conditions on the planet. They came to the conclusion that if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, by 2070 a third of humanity will live in a climate characteristic of the hottest parts of the Sahara desert. According to their calculations, outside temperature and humidity, where people have lived for the past 6 thousand years, could be 3.5 billion people. The paper was published in the journal of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS), reports the Santa Fe Institute, (SFI).
The world population is mainly concentrated in narrow climatic zones. The majority of people live in places where the average annual temperature is 11 to 15°C, and fewer residents in areas with an average temperature of between 20-25°C. do not influence innovation and migration – humanity is living in such conditions for several thousand years. “This strikingly constant climatic niche is probably a fundamental limit for what people need for survival and prosperity,” says SFI Professor marten Scheffer from Wageningen University, who coordinated the study with Chi Xu from Nanjing University and a visiting Professor at SFI Tim Kohler from Washington state University.
The scenario in which emissions continue to grow steadily, the temperature in the places of residence of people by 2070 will increase by 7.5°C. This is more than the expected increase in global average temperature by just over 3°C, because the earth will warm much faster than ocean, and also because the population growth shifted to the side already hot places.
In this case, about 30% of the projected world population will live in areas with an average temperature above 29°C. These conditions are currently experiencing only 0.8% of the earth’s surface, mainly in the hottest parts of the Sahara desert, but in 50 years they can apply to the 19% of the land on the planet. According to study co-author Jens-Christian Svenning from Aarhus University, with 3.5 billion people will be in the areas uninhabitable.
“Over the coming 50 y, 1-3B people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y.”
Ominous new work in @PNASNews co-authored by a team incl. SFI’s Tim Kohler & Marten Scheffer:https://t.co/c7aLyhRmHa#climatechange pic.twitter.com/aMMlEHNogp
— Santa Fe Institute (@sfiscience) May 5, 2020
Scientists believe that to stop this process can only quick reduction of carbon emissions. Reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the planet’s atmosphere can halve the number of people exposed to such hot conditions. “The good news is that these impacts can be significantly reduced if humanity manages to curb global warming. Our calculations show that each degree of warming above current levels corresponds to approximately one billion people that are outside the climatic niche. It is important that we now are able to Express the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases in a more human form than just in monetary terms,” says study co-author Tim Lenton, a climate expert at Exeter University.
The authors note that part of the 3.5 billion people due to extreme heat will want to leave the place of residence, but emphasize that the decision to migrate is influenced by many factors, and some of the issues associated with the movement can potentially be addressed by adaptation to climate change. Therefore, to anticipate the scale of migration due to climate remains difficult.
“The coronavirus has changed the world a few months ago it was hardly possible to imagine. Our results show that climate warming could lead to similar processes”, – quotes the words of Martin Schaeffer of Deutsche Welle. The rate of development to the climate crisis not as noticeable as the spread of the pandemic, but, unlike the virus, the situation will improve in the near future, I’m sure Schaeffer, hope is not necessary.