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Scientists predict a significant decline in the population of the Earth to the end of the century

Andreus / DepositPhotos

The world population will reach its peak of 9.7 billion – in the year 2064, and then begin to decline, and by the end of the century will drop to 8.8 billion people, according to Wednesday BBC News, citing scientists from the Institute of metrics and evaluation of health (IHME) at the University of Washington who prepared the forecast.

This conclusion made on the basis of analysis of changes in the fertility rate in the world (average number of children a woman can have over a lifetime). So, in 1950 the figure was 4.7, by 2017, it is reduced by half, to 2.4.

Experts from IHME predicts that by 2100 the fertility rate will fall to 1.7. Scientists note that if the ratio falls below the mark of 2.1, then the population of the planet begins to shrink, reports “Interfax”.

Japan’s population peaked at 128 million in 2017. According to the forecast IHME, the end of the century it will decline to 53 million people. The population of Italy during the same period will decrease from 61 million to 28 million By the end of the century also reduced by half the number of inhabitants of Spain, Portugal, Thailand, South Korea and 17 other countries.

The population of the African countries located South of Sahara to grow by the year 2100 tripled, to three billion people. And Nigeria will become the second country in the world by population (791 million).

The population of China, which is now the most populous country in the world, will increase to 1.4 billion by 2024. By the end of the century, the number of Chinese citizens is reduced by almost half, to 732 million people, scientists predict. Overall, by 2100, reduce the population of 183 from all 195 countries of the world, are waiting at IHME.

Scientists explained that the decline in fertility rate is due primarily to the fact that more women now have access to the education and the opportunity to work as well as the widespread use of contraception.

In addition, the end of the century will significantly increase the number of older people and greatly reduced the number of children. Thus, the number of children under five years will decrease from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100. The number of people older than 80 years, by contrast, will grow from 141 million in 2017 up to 866 million by the end of the century.

One of the authors of the study, Professor Christopher Murray calls this the transformation of the age structure of the population in the world, “vast social change”. The scientist warns that this can have serious consequences for the world economy.