When Putin goes, the Ukrainians will have the full right to elect the clown as their President. However, until that time, they must understand that to lead a country in the modern dangerous world – no joke.

Russia invaded part of Ukraine, reforms in Ukraine still have to go – it would seem that the Ukrainians really need an experienced person at the helm. Instead, they can elect 41-year-old television comedian Vladimir Zelensky as its next President, writes Professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark Alexander Motyl for the Atlantic Council.

According to the latest opinion poll, Zelensky lead in the first round of voting, scheduled for March 31 from 16.4% among all respondents, ahead of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, with its 9.6% and President Peter Poroshenko, which is 10.8%.

In the second round, scheduled for April, Zelensky, according to polls, Poroshenko wins with a 39.6% 18.1% Tymoshenko from 35.5% to 22.2%.

The author writes that the popularity of the comic, obviously, is a sign of mass discontent of Ukrainians, the existing political elites, whom they accused that they did not meet high expectations, caused by the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. Not surprisingly, in the mainly Russian-speaking Zelensky has a good performance in the Southeast and among young people, as both the electoral circle of the most alienated from the Ukrainian elite.

Whatever the motives of his supporters, the election Zelensky would be a catastrophe for Ukraine. He looks a decent man, and only a few of his publicly expressed views are offensive or blatantly stupid. But the fact that he is completely inexperienced as a politician. His only encounter with something resembling the world of politics, the role of the President-reformer on television. This is simply not enough at this critical stage in the history of Ukraine and the world.

Victory Zelensky almost immediately would have the following adverse consequences for the Ukraine:

First, Ukraine’s relations with the West will be atrophied, since Zelensky is trying to figure out which Western institutions and policies matter most for his country. Negotiations with the International monetary Fund, the world Bank and the European Bank for reconstruction and development falters. Meanwhile, American and European politicians will postpone its relations with Ukraine. As investors, for whom it would be foolish to invest their capital in the country, driven by comedian.

Second, Ukrainian oligarchs, who in the past five years, partly faded, take advantage of the inexperience Zelensky and inability to manage complex structures of power in Ukraine to realize a comeback. So do the corrupt officials at all levels of society and the state. Ukraine’s GDP will fall, the shadow economy will grow, unemployment will grow, the trade with Europe will decline, and brain drain – especially young people who chose Zelensky – accelerate.

Thirdly, the reform has completely stopped. First, Zelensky has not the slightest idea how to change the society, economy and politics, and he’ll need a year or two to learn. On the other hand, the bureaucratic and administrative chaos that would unleash the rise to power Zelensky, will cause it to maintain or restore basic order in the crumbling of the social, political and economic system.

Fourthly, Putin and his cronies in the breakaway regions of the South-East of Ukraine will be delighted with the progressive disintegration of Ukraine under the leadership of mismanagement Zelensky. Who better to lead the country, which they considered a joke than a clown? Who better to cope with a possible provocation in the occupied territories on the Azov sea or on the mainland of Ukraine? Putin will be tempted to start an armed attack, for example, in Mariupol immediately after the inauguration Zelensky. Perhaps even more dangerous would be a “charm offensive” that aims to lure naive Zelensky a number of obligations, which is tantamount to Ukraine’s refusal from its sovereignty.

As if these features were not bad enough, it is possible that the parliamentary elections in Ukraine in autumn will lead to a dead end, and a fragmented legislature, unable to agree on anything. Ukraine will then be the worst of three possible worlds – a weak President and a weak Happy, facing enormous internal and external challenges.

It will then be possible another revolution, perhaps even a few months after the election Zelensky. This time, however, it probably would be enforced from the beginning, because the population of Ukraine has an unusually large stock of weapons in private ownership, and the Ukrainian army will almost certainly be on the side of the protesters against the comedian. There is a small chance that Putin will be able to resist that rush to the aid of his armed “Russian brothers” on the territory, which he considers “Little Russia”.

Of course, these scenarios – the worst you can imagine. But what makes them frightening is the fact that Zelensky President, they can provide relatively easy. Unlike all others, whether Poroshenko, Tymoshenko or the former Minister of defence Anatoly Gritsenko – as head of state.

When Putin will leave, and if Russia ever decides to abandon the construction of the Empire, the Ukrainians will have the full right to elect the clown as their President. However, until that time, they must understand that to lead a country in the modern dangerous world – no joke.

We will remind, earlier “Диалог.UA” reported that the Ukrainians have “opened the eyes” – Zelensky interview proved incompetent as a politician.