The country of dreams. Why Ukraine is doomed to stand still
Our country remains detached from the pragmatic business
The impression that the basis of economic strategy of the Ukrainian authorities is increasing at any cost position in the Doing Business rating of the world Bank. No doubt, if we judge the reforms on this indicator, they are more than successful. Since 2013, Ukraine’s rating has risen by 57 positions until the 80th place. And, says Petro Poroshenko, this year we’ll go up 10 points.
The only question is — which means improving the country’s position in Doing Business not for the “spherical investor in a vacuum”, and for a real businessman. Whether a shareholder of the global Corporation, looking for a Odessa port plant, whether sole proprietorship, decided to open a Shawarma joint.
For them it does not mean anything. Because people do not assess the ratings, and the real situation in the country. When it comes to blurring the eyes, Ukrainian officials can work wonders. They manage loud to suppress the activities of one source of corruption and instead to create a dozen others. A simple example — in recent months, the attorney began to extrude the business is much less than ranisen in their place came the SBU. Now from the company at any time can put all the equipment on suspicion of using illegal SOFTWARE.
Such examples — weight. Whatever the ratings of the country, any investor understands that the purchase of a strategic asset it needs parliamentary lobby. As well as entrepreneur realizes that “enter” it will still have.
“Soon everything will remain as it is. Ukraine in the coming years will remain a country dreaming of the NATO and United Europe, is rapidly increasing its place in the international rankings, but are of little interest for the pragmatic businessman”
Ukraine on-former remains the raw country, and any fall in the relevant markets threatens us with catastrophic collapse of the hryvnia. Owned by the oligarchs vertically integrated holding companies to optimize the profit, while entrepreneurs with “remove” in full. The rate of growth of the Ukrainian economy is below average and does not allow us not that “catch up and overtake”, but continue to increase the wealth gap with neighboring countries. Not solved such problems as inflation and the debt crisis in housing.
In short, at least in the ratings grow, the key events in the domestic M&A market this year was limited to investments of Western companies into the agricultural assets and the shuffling of ownership between domestic oligarchs.
How to reduce the main risks of the Ukrainian economy and increase the investment attractiveness of the country as a whole is clear. You can go the Western way — to sell on transparent auctions as the main source of “flow” state, to allow the free sale of land, to hold liberal medical, judicial and pension reforms. You can go the way of the East mercilessly to persecute the corrupt officials of all ranks and for a long time to put them in jail.
In short, there are options. Another issue is that real reform means loss of elite “threads” and leverage on the country. So, they are disadvantageous, especially in the upcoming elections. And soon all will remain as it is.
Ukraine in the coming years will remain a country dreaming of the NATO and United Europe, is rapidly increasing its place in the international rankings, but are of little interest for the pragmatic businessman.