Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir arrested, and the government passed into the hands of the military. This was a live broadcast the Sudanese TV said the defense Minister of the Republic Awad bin Auf. According to experts, initially none of the security forces were not for a change of government, but the military had to intervene to stop escalating conflict. In 2020 in Sudan must pass the presidential and parliamentary elections, but analysts doubt that the change of leadership, Africa will improve the lives of ordinary citizens. However, the foreign policy of the Sudan will not change, according to experts. What consequences can lead the Sudanese coup — versed RT.
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir is under arrest. The country introduced a state of emergency for a period of three months and a curfew for a month. For the next 24 hours the airspace over Africa will be closed. On these measures announced on 11 April the Minister of defence of Sudan Awad bin Auf during a televised address to the nation.
Within two years the country will be led by a Transitional military Council, who will take on administrative duties and prepare all needed for elections, the Minister added.
Also the head of military Department has clarified the fate of ousted from power of President Omar al-Bashir. The politician, has led the country over the last thirty years, are detained and “is contained in a safe place,” said Awad bin Auf.
- The Minister of defence of Sudan, Awad Ibn Auf
- © Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah
Earlier, the leader of the Sudanese opposition and former Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi told television channel Al-Hadath that the deposed President al-Bashir and his associates are under house arrest. This information was denied by the RIA Novosti source in the presidential Palace. According to him, al-Bashir is in the building of the General staff of the armed forces.
As stated in an interview with RIA Novosti the representative of the Sudanese opposition coalition “national front for change,” for the citizens of the country, the former President politically “dead”.
“He died for the political life of the Sudan. The same can be said about his party and the environment, — quotes the words of the Sudanese opposition leader RIA Novosti. — Now the situation in the country controlled by the army, internal troops and the national security apparatus”.
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According to media reports, thousands of residents of the capital of Sudan took to the streets and loudly rejoice in the overthrow of the President.
However, experts fear that the uplift will not last long and things will return to usual Sudanese way. This point of view in an interview with RT expressed by the scientist-orientalist, Professor, Russian state humanitarian University, Sergei Seregichev. In his opinion, the military is unlikely to want to usurp power — they just need time to carry out all necessary procedures and to raise money for elections.
“Unfortunately, it is unlikely as a result of this coup, the situation in Sudan has improved markedly, rather, the history of the country will go again in a circle. Symbolically, the coup took place in these days because in the beginning of April 1985, approximately the same scenario was overthrown by President Jaafar Nimeiri. Then, too, was formed a transitional Council for a year, and then appeared full — fledged civil government,” – said the expert in an interview with RT.
“The army is a balanced position”
The initial cause of the outbreak in December last year, the protests in Sudan has been the growth of prices for bread. At the level of poverty that exists in the country, bread was a painful blow for ordinary citizens. First, the wave of protests engulfed the Central regions of the country, in some cities even introduced a state of emergency. Has not done without victims — according to official figures, by the end of January on the streets of the country killed about thirty people.
As explained by Sergey Seregichev, the cause of the protests was the chronic economic crisis in which the people of Sudan every year more and more impoverished.
“The government promised change, but to change the situation failed, and people are tired of waiting. In addition, did not improve the situation and ongoing negotiations with the opposition that the government was not for a specific outcome, but as an end in itself to blur the demands of disgruntled. It also caused irritation,” — said the expert.
- Omar Al-Bashir
- © Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah
According to Seregichev, the preconditions for social-political eruption have accumulated over the years, but the “Arab spring” has bypassed the Sudan side, because in 2011 the country seceded South Sudan, and it distracted everyone’s attention. But in recent years it became clear that as a result of the secession of the southern part of the country, life has not improved, and the voltage again began to grow.
“Plus inspire the opposition could and recent events in neighboring Algeria. Of external intervention in this case to say, most likely, is not necessary. As for the army, she is now trying to take a balanced position,” — said Sergey Seregichev.
A similar view is shared by leading research fellow, MGIMO Yuri Zinin. According to the expert, the roots of the revolution lie in the socio-economic field.
“The army intervened in order to stop the ongoing crisis,” the expert explained in an interview with RT.
In late February, when it became obvious that the wave of protests subsides, the head of state has adopted a series of measures to reverse the situation. He dismissed the government and provincial leaders, and to exit from the economic peak declared in the country state of emergency. Moreover, Omar al-Bashir took an unprecedented step and proposed to his old enemy the Sadiq al-Mahdi the post of personal assistant.
In the 1980s, the Sadiq al-Mahdi was led by the Sudanese government. Exactly Omar al-Bashir, supported by the military overthrew him in 1989. The politician went on a long exile, but in 2017 returned to the Sudan and led the opposition party “al-Umma” (“Nation”).
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But the President’s proposal is not interested Sadiq al-Mahdi, and a few days before the present coup on behalf of the citizens he demanded that Omar al-Bashir to release all political prisoners, to cancel the emergency mode, and to voluntarily resign.
In addition, residents of Sudan are outraged by the authorities ‘ intention to review the provisions of the Constitution, according to which Omar al-Bashir had no right to run for another term in 2020. But in February, the Director of the national security Service and intelligence of the country has tried to reassure the public, saying that this will not happen. According to him, the President will leave the post of leader of the ruling party “national Congress”, but will not be nominated for a new term. However, elections for President and Parliament, as scheduled, will be held next year. After this announcement, and a new increase in bread prices disgruntled citizens began to take to the streets.
At first the military tried to disperse the protesters. But on April 9, in Khartoum clashed between security forces and opposition, which in the streets, killing 13 people, reported the Associated Press.
According to media reports, a few days before the clashes in social networks of the Sudan began to appear information about the preparation of an armed coup in the country.
According to experts, the military were not the initiators of the coup, and only intercepted the situation, paying off flares up the conflict. The head of the defense Ministry of Sudan said that although the army knows the motives of the protesters, it will not allow to spread chaos in the country — that the military just “is not just a story”.
“No experience of successful reforms”
Indeed, the chaos and bloodshed in the history of the Sudan was too much: almost the entire post-colonial history of the country consists of a succession of coups and civil conflicts. The main confrontation took place in the North — South, where they lived, respectively, Arabs, Muslims and African tribes who profess Christianity.
- Sudanese rebels during the civil war
- © Goran Tomasevic
The conflict began before the proclamation of Sudanese independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956, the southerners and the northerners entered into a bloody confrontation. The civil war lasted several decades, until 2006, with the exception of the armistice 1972-1983 years. Only in 2005, the parties managed to agree. The Sudanese authorities agreed to hold a referendum, the results of which southern parts of the country gained independence.
This put an end to the bloodshed, but has worsened the economic status of northerners, as southern Sudan has left most of the oil fields. In 2009, the poverty line lived about 45% of the population, but now the revenues of the Khartoum from oil exports fell from $11.1 billion to $1.8 billion This dealt a serious blow to the already weak economy. For comparison: the income of the Sudanese budget in 2017 amounted to little more than $8 billion, spent about $13 billion.
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After the loss of oil revenues, the authorities decided to focus on the development of agriculture. The President presented the strategy of development of the agricultural industry. But although Sudan has fertile lands and irrigation water, and labor resources to achieve a breakthrough in the economy of our Republic has failed, experts say.
“Among Arab countries, the Sudan had a special relationship: the hope was to turn it into a huge food basket for the Arab world. But Sudan does not use the potential of their resources, having near the market: the rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf in need of food supplies,” — said Yuri Zinin.
To date, experts are not ready to give optimistic forecasts concerning the Sudanese economy. According to Sergey Seregichev, hope for structural change almost no.
“The Sudan has just no experience of successful reforms, and it is unclear which way to develop. But the consequences of following IMF prescriptions, illustrated by the example of countries such as Argentina. But alternatives the Sudanese also not” — said the expert.
The question of stability
The Sudan occupies an important geostrategic position on the world map. Experts note that the country has access to the Red sea, so in the future she is able to participate in the control of this area and the adjoining Straits. Besides, Sudan is one of the largest countries of the African continent, rich in gold deposits. The mining of this metal is growing in the country. In 2017 there were recovered more than 100 tons of gold. For comparison: in 2013 it produced only 24 tons. Starting in 2013, the exploration and production of gold in the country was engaged in the Russian company Siberian for Mining by agreement with the local government. Intelligence Russian geologists say that the total volume of deposits of gold in the country amount to about 46 thousand tons.
- A sugar cane plantation, Sudan.
- © Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah
The former government of the Sudan has sought to actively cooperate with Moscow. In particular, by the Sudanese authorities, there were proposals to build a Russian military base in the country. With this initiative in 2017 made by the head of Committee of defence and security of the Sudanese Parliament. However, Moscow reacted cautiously to this proposal. According to experts, the establishment of a military base in Africa would have for Russia significant financial costs. Instead, in January 2019, the Russian government has approved a draft agreement on a simplified procedure of calling of the military ships of both countries in the ports of Russia and Sudan.
Now Moscow is watching the situation in Africa. On 11 April, said press Secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov.
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“We also hope that whatever the outcome — and the whole situation is purely an internal matter of the Sudanese — Russian-Sudanese relations will be a constant in the foreign policy of Sudan,” he added.
The country there are long-standing ties with the West, such as Britain, experts say. At the same time, the Republic is of particular interest for neighbouring States — a vast territory is unguarded border, and it is very convenient for various criminal and anti-government organizations.
“Sudan’s neighbors are interested in the Republic remained stable and are now closely monitoring the situation,” — said Yuri Zinin.
According to experts, after a coup, foreign policy of the Sudan will not change — Khartoum is also friends with Iran, to liaise with Saudi Arabia and other countries.
“Neighbors, primarily Egypt, will be interested in the fact that the Sudan has received some financial support, and will try to help. No one wants to see on its borders blazing fire of civil war in the Sudan. With regard to relations of the Republic with Moscow, they should not deteriorate. On the contrary, the new government will certainly try to enlist the support of Russia”, — concluded the Sergei Seregichev.