The American analytical center “Atlantic Council” (Atlantic Council) has predicted what would it mean for Ukraine’s victory in the presidential election showman and comedian Vladimir Zelensky.
At the Atlantic Council believe that the presidency Zelensky will become a huge mistake, reports “Диалог.UA” with reference to the UAINFO.
The world is in turmoil, Russia occupying part of Ukraine, reforms in Ukraine have not been carried out, democracy is in retreat in most parts of Europe.
It would seem that the Ukrainians have to worry and worry. It would seem that they need an experienced man at the helm. But instead, they can elect 41-year-old television comedian Vladimir Zelensky as its next President.
According to one survey, Zelensky can win in the first round of voting, scheduled for March 31, with 16.4% of votes. Slightly less than one of the surveys scored the former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is 9.6%. President Petro Poroshenko of 10.8%. In the second round, scheduled for April, Zelensky can bypass Poroshenko and 39.6% to 18.1% and Tymoshenko was 35.5% to 22.2%.
The popularity of the comic, obviously, is a sign of mass discontent of Ukrainians, the existing political elites that are accused of that they did not meet the high expectations associated with the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. Not surprisingly, speaking mostly in Russian Zelensky has a good performance in the Southeast and among young people, as both these groups of voters are most alienated from the Ukrainian elite.
Whatever the motives of his supporters, the election Zelensky would be a disaster for Ukraine. He looks a decent man, and only a few of his publicly expressed views are offensive or blatantly stupid. But the truth is that he is completely inexperienced as a politician. His only contact with anything resembling the world of politics, was due to the role of President-reformer in the television series. This is absolutely insufficient at this critical moment in the history of Ukraine and the world.
Victory Zelensky almost immediately would have caused the following adverse consequences for the Ukraine:
First, Ukraine’s relations with the West will be atrophied because Zelensky will only attempt to figure out which Western institutions and policies matter most for his country. Negotiations with the International monetary Fund, the world Bank and the European Bank for reconstruction and development falters. Meanwhile, American and European politicians will lose interest in building relations with Ukraine. As investors who deem it foolish to invest in a country ruled by a comedian.
Second, Ukrainian oligarchs, who for the past five years, partly retreated into the shadows, take advantage of the inexperience Zelensky and inability to manage complex structures of power in Ukraine to carry out revenge. So will the corrupt officials at all levels of society and the state. Ukraine’s GDP will fall, the shadow economy will grow, unemployment will grow, the trade with Europe will decline, and the brain drain, especially of young people who chose Zelensky – accelerate.
Third, reform has completely stopped. First, Zelensky has not the slightest idea of how transformed society, economy and politics, and he’ll need a year or two to learn. On the other hand, the bureaucratic and administrative chaos that would unleash the rise to power Zelensky, will cause it to maintain or restore basic order in the crumbling of the social, political and economic system.
Fourthly, Putin and his cronies in the breakaway regions of the South-East of Ukraine will be delighted with the progressive disintegration of Ukraine under the leadership of mismanagement Zelensky. Who is better suited for the role of head of the country, which they consider to be a laughingstock than a clown? Who is the worst to cope with possible provocations in the occupied territories, in the Azov sea or on the mainland of Ukraine? Surely, Putin will face a great temptation to begin the armed struggle, say, to Mariupol, immediately after the inauguration Zelensky. Perhaps even more dangerous are the efforts of Moscow to charm and lure naive Zelensky in bondage liabilities amounting to Ukraine’s refusal from its sovereignty.
This is a bad enough term, but it is possible that the autumn parliamentary elections in Ukraine will lead to deadlock and fragmentation in the legislature, and its members lose the ability to agree on anything. Then Ukraine is waiting for the worst reality in three dimensions – weak President and a weak Parliament, in the face of enormous internal and external challenges.
It will then be possible another Revolution, perhaps even a few months after the election Zelensky. However, this time she will probably be wearing the violent nature from the beginning, because the population of Ukraine has an unusually large stock of weapons on hand, and the Ukrainian army will almost certainly be on the side of the protesters against the President of the comic. Putin is unlikely to stand and will not hasten to the aid of their armed Russian-speaking brethren, living as he believes, in the Ukraine.
Of course, these scenarios – the worst you can imagine. But especially menacing them doing what Zelensky victory in the presidential elections they can be represented relatively easily, unlike all the others – whether Poroshenko, Tymoshenko or the former Minister of defence Anatoly Gritsenko.
When Putin goes out of power, and if Russia will ever abandon the Imperial ambitions, the Ukrainians will have the full right to elect the clown as their President. However, until that time, they must understand that to lead a country in the modern world full of dangers is no joke.
We will remind, earlier “Диалог.UA” reported that the Ukrainians have “opened the eyes” – Zelensky interview proved incompetent as a politician.